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MOLTR=850
CONFIRMED

(What this ranking means?)

 

The moreorlesstrue ranking [MOLTR] captures, in a single number, a current snapshot of the topic's journey from Fiction to Fact. The number, if high, implies the scientific evidence is strong and the concept is unlikely to change. A low number indicates poor support, verging on fiction. And, as the RANKINGS section elaborates, in-between numbers indicate whether the conclusions are merely transitory, provocative enough to deserve further scrutiny, or almost confirmed.

 

The moderator is grateful the moreorlesstrue site started in 2005, the year the Nobel Prize in Medicine recognized the pioneering work of J. Robin Warren and Barry J. Marshall, co-discoverers of the link between gastric ulcers and bacteria. It made my job that much simpler. Ten years ago, such a causal link- while becoming stronger- was still controversial. At the time, their observation would have deserved a MOLTR of about 700:LIKELY. But, as major population trials reported back, and the role of bacteria in related diseases such as cancer became clearer, the MOLTR started rising to its current value of 850.

Why 850? Well, to me a Fact should be as close to a fundamental truth of nature as possible. Bacteria can and do cause ulcers, but not in all populations at all times. And some ulcers are not the result of an infection. Furthermore, there is still a possibility that some, as yet unappreciated factor, determines the likelihood of bacteria attacking the stomach lining. The body is a complex vat of chemicals and lifeforms- and only part of the story has been written. So the MOLTR is set to 850, even after receiving the Nobel Prize..

 
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